Oscars Prop Bets: The Best Longshots to Target

Every year that I use a model by Harvard graduate and baseball analyst Ben Zauzmer that is posted in The Hollywood Reporter to win, nay, crush a hometown Oscars pool.
But holding bragging rights over your friends is not near as entertaining as taking an offshore sportsbook to the cleaners, so I thoughtwhy not use it to Oscars prop bets? This season I set my sites on using his model to find the most inefficient and exploitable odds.
In comparing the proportions from Zauzmer’s model together with the implied odds on Bovada, I managed to identify a couple of longshot, contrarian bets offering substantial value on account of this preferred, frequently Roma, being overvalued.
It is unlikely that a vast majority of these hit, but at these odds we actually just need to bink one to have a rewarding Sunday evening.
All credit belongs to the very sharp Ben Zauzmer, therefore please follow him Twitter and test out all of his posts on The Hollywood Reporter (1 & 2), where you could observe the model’s full effects, plus his comment.
And for much more best Oscars prop bets, have a look at my appearance at the specialized categories.
Best Picture
Favorite: Roma (-330)
Best Bet: BlacKkKlansman (+3000)
Zauzmer’s model provides Roma a 32.6percent to win best picture, which can be a far cry from the suggested Bovada likelihood of 76%. The model provides BlacKkKlansman a 17.5% chance to win — a big discrepancy out of Bovada’s 3% implied odds. It may be a longshot, but that’s too much value to pass upon.
Via Zauzmer:
“ROMA EARNED MAJOR HONORS FROM THE DIRECTORS GUILD AND BAFTAS — GOOD ENOUGH TO VAULT INTO FIRST PLACE, BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO APPROACH 50 PERCENT. SO THERE’S ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE THAT ROMA LOSES THAN WINS, BUT IT’S STILL THE MOST LIKELY WINNER AMONG THE EIGHT CONTENDERS.”
Finest Manager Favorite: Alfonso Cuaron (-2000)
Best Bet: Yorgos Lanthimos (+3300)
The Favourite, starring Emma Stone, might not be receiving its proper due. (Image: Vox)
Similar to Best Picture, there is a huge discrepancy between how Bovada and Zauzmer are handicapping the race.
Bovada’s suggested odds give Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) a 95% chance of victory, whereas Zauzmer’s model gives him a 65 percent chance. The value can be found with The Favorite manager, Yorgos Lanthimos, where the version provides a higher chance to acquire (11.6percent ) than Bovada’s implied odds (2.8percent ).

Read more: https://www.samadhyjyasociacion.org/ufc-fn146-betting-tips-plays/

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