That’s the graph of William Hill’s yearly revenue and profits for the last four decades. If I were less incompetent at using Google to retrieve historical results I would have gone further, and you’d have noticed the consequences goes far beyond the last four years. They constantly make money. They’re a machine.
They’re a bookmaker. You know how”the house always wins”? Well that is exactly what this chart is showing you.
People who haven’t moved on in disgust at the bait-and-switch response you feel you are reading are likely asking something such as”ha bloody ha Groves…you know that is not what the question means. This means”how can I win consistently in sports betting?”
I do know that, yes. And there is a point . The purpose is that when the bookmakers consistently triumph, which essentially they do, all you need to do to win is do what the bookmakers are doing.
Alright, so now you’re perhaps thinking”that is all very well smartarse, but I am not just going to go out and open a chain of betting shops during the upcoming several decades and slowly build up a profitable company now am I?” (ah I visit! You would like to consistently win, but you do not wish to really have to do any work to make it take place? Gotcha).
That is missing the point though. You do not have to open a chain of betting shops, fortunately. You need to identify the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and copy those.
Reason number one the bookie wins: He does his homework. He uses information that empowers him to estimate, with greater precision than the people he’s betting with, what the true chances of any specific outcome are. He has all the data he could find, and he has computer models to analyse that data.
All of this you can do yourself. You just need to be prepared to put that effort in. It is difficult to accumulate this much data, and build these types of versions, but it is possible. It has been done by me. It may be done.
Reason number two the bookie wins: He”fees” individuals to bet. The odds that he offers do not add as much as an implied probability of 100%, the remainder being potential profit for the bookie (called the”vig” from the US). Based on the event he may be charging a couple of percentage points (so on average he’ll make $2 for each $100 wager ) to a few hundred percent points (so on average he’ll make $200 for each $100 bet). It depends on his certainty about his estimate, how dodgy he is, how idiotic he thinks his punters are, just how much competition he has, and so on.
You can sort of do this yourself, but it is not quite so easy. Luckily you don’t need to benefit from the gain source so much as make sure it’s not a gain drain. 1 method to do this is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets on an exchange such as Betfair at which you can actually function as a price-maker rather than a price-taker. As it’s a market, you can’t always get paid to put on the stakes you want, but sometimes you can, and overall you definitely pay much less to play than you would if you went to a traditional bookie. You might even decrease the vig by shopping around and gambling with all the best priced bookie, instead of going to the identical spot for all your bets.
There are several other things too, but these are the crucial things you want to deal with. So that the bookie makes money by adding the gains from understanding the chances better to the gains from being compensated the vig. The way you’re going to earn money is by making sure that the losses from paying the vig are less than the gains from realizing the chances better. It is just maths.
You even have an advantage over the bookies that will assist you. That’s the advantage of not needing to bet. Bookies are anticipated to produce markets on a whole host of sporting events, and honour those costs if somebody tries to wager on them. You do not need to do that. You can concentrate on the stuff which you can understand better, which you have good data on, which you’ve got models that provide good odds estimates on. You can sit and wait for the occasions the bookies get it wrong, because among all the noise they do get it wrong occasionally. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you want to wait. Then you bet. And you also do this together with all the odds in your favour and vig removed as far as possible.
If you do so, then you are taking advantage of the very same items that the bookie uses to win consistently. And as we all know,”the house always wins”.
Does this sound like a lot of work? Perhaps, right? It is not easy. It isn’t quick. It is not a get-rich-quick scheme. * However, this is absolutely a way to win consistently at sports betting.