This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and revel in the rest of the day when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we should have a big edge this week if we put in the job. Most casual players will not be doing research on these names they have never heard and will just be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s a tough card this Sunday and I believe we will see a lot of people making mistakes in money games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to pile it in my cash games and lock those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I think we can observe multiple knockdowns too that would help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points combined with these two men. Let’s let everybody else make the errors and we can lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we just have to find another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP play of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a win. He’s got quite a slick entry game and when this fight goes to the floor I presume he can pick up progress points fast and find a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning on the toes, he still shoots in for takedowns every struggle. I think if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we could see a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down from the last few years but I believe he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I really do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you need some exposure to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own picks being correct and I can hit the ideal combo. It is hard to pick one favorite fade this week however I will pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that seems good on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and I don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he is my fade of the week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and also my pick forecast for every single struggle then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

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